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Germany’s Axel Weber leads the race to succeed Jean-Claude Trichet as president of the European Central Bank and Portugal’s Vitor Constancio is likely to be his deputy, a survey of economists shows.

Of 27 economists in the Bloomberg News survey, 24 said Weber will be chosen to replace Trichet, whose term ends on Oct. 31 next year. Only three picked Italy’s Mario Draghi, Weber’s main rival for the job. Twenty economists said Constancio will succeed Lucas Papademos as vice president when his term expires on May 31 this year. Euro-region finance ministers are due to vote on the vice president post today.

Jockeying for the ECB presidency has already started as governments across the 16-nation euro region grapple with a fiscal crisis that has prompted investors to question the sustainability of the monetary union. Installing Weber at the ECB’s helm next year would give Europe an outspoken inflation fighter who has stressed the need for fiscal discipline to protect the euro.

“Weber has a very strong personality and will definitely give the euro a very powerful and visible face,” said Laurent Bilke, a former ECB economist now at Nomura International Plc in London, who expects Bundesbank President Weber to win. “He’s a recognized economist and will make a difference. Under him, the ECB may even grow in its international stature.”

Weber’s Influence

Weber, 52, has sped to the top of European policy making. Like Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke, he is a former academic. He joined the Bundesbank as president from the University of Cologne in 2004 after a scandal over hotel expenses forced predecessor Ernst Welteke to resign.

Weber quickly established himself as one of the most influential of the ECB’s 22 Governing Council members, often pre-empting policy shifts and moving currency and bond markets with his comments.

He landed on Trichet’s so-called “Black List” last November by revealing the ECB would tighten its lending to banks. The remarks breached ECB protocol that major announcements be made by the president and also came within a week of a council meeting, when officials are supposed to refrain from commenting on policy.

Weber is perceived by economists as one of the ECB’s toughest inflation-fighting “hawks” because of the emphasis he places on curbing risks to price stability.

Hawks and Doves

If Constancio wins the ECB vice presidency, he would strengthen Weber’s chances by lending balance to his ticket. Constancio, Portugal’s central bank chief, is known as a “dove” who pays more attention to economic growth. Between them they would also ensure representation from northern and southern Europe at the top of the ECB.

Luxembourg’s Yves Mersch and Belgium’s Peter Praet are also on the ballot for the vice presidency business cards design. If finance ministers pick Mersch, who like Weber has a reputation as an inflation hawk, Draghi’s chances of replacing Trichet would rise.

Draghi, 62, left Goldman Sachs Group Inc. to become governor of the Italian central bank in January 2006. He replaced Antonio Fazio, who resigned after a criminal investigation was opened into his handling of Italian bank mergers. A former economics professor like Weber, Draghi chairs the Financial Stability Board and has pushed for limits on bankers’ pay and stronger capital requirements.

A spokesman for Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi said last week that the government backs Draghi for the ECB job.

‘Neck and Neck’

German Chancellor Angela Merkel has won French President Nicolas Sarkozy’s support for Weber’s candidacy, German magazines Spiegel and WirtschaftsWoche reported this month.

“It will be a neck-and-neck race,” said Holger Sandte, chief European economist at WestLB Equity Markets in Dusseldorf, who expects Draghi to win. “Policy makers probably want someone who’s a bit more diplomatic than Weber,” he said, adding the ECB “resides in Frankfurt and it’s pretty much designed in a German way.”

Germany, Europe’s largest economy, hasn’t held a major European policy position since Walter Hallstein led the Commission of the European Economic Community from 1958 to 1967. It didn’t put up a candidate when the ECB’s first president was picked in 1998, pushing instead for Wim Duisenberg of the Netherlands in exchange for the ECB being headquartered in Frankfurt, Germany’s financial capital.

The decision on Trichet’s successor “ultimately comes down to politics,” said Nick Matthews, senior economist at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc in London, who believes Weber will prevail. “I would imagine the argument that ‘it’s Germany’s turn’ is being used in the discussion.”

Musical Chairs

Whoever takes over from Trichet, the ECB’s six-member Executive Board may need to be reconfigured to ensure one country doesn’t dominate it.

With Juergen Stark and Lorenzo Bini Smaghi, Germany and Italy are already represented on the board. Economists said one of them will probably have to step down before his term expires to make way for Weber or Draghi and avoid giving either country too much weight in the ECB’s decision making.

“Stark will be upgraded to Bundesbank president,” said Carsten Brzeski, senior economist at ING Group in Brussels, who believes Weber will win the race. “Stark is a good Prussian. He’s dutiful and does everything that’s good for his fatherland. He’ll clean his desk.”

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