Business World

India’s credit rating may be raised from junk if Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee provides a comprehensive plan to roll back fiscal stimulus and cut the budget deficit this week, Moody’s Investors Service said.

“If we think the exit path is well articulated and well executed, the local currency rating could be upgraded,” Aninda Mitra, a Singapore-based sovereign analyst at Moody’s, said in a telephone interview on Feb. 19. India’s long-term local currency debt is placed at Ba2 by Moody’s, two levels below the investment grade and at par with Armenia and Turkey.

Mukherjee has an opportunity to narrow the budget shortfall as accelerating economic growth boosts tax revenue and a stronger political mandate after last year’s elections paves the way to resume asset sales. Rating changes have less impact on India than other countries like Greece, which borrow more from abroad. India’s foreign borrowings make up only about 4 percent of government debt compared with 83 percent for Greece, according to Citigroup Inc.

Stocks, Bonds Gain

“India has lived with a budget deficit for so long, and with a high growth rate you can run a deficit,” said Andrew Michael Spence, a Nobel prize-winning economist and professor emeritus at Stanford University’s Graduate School of Business. “You don’t want the credit rating to go too low. It’s more signaling rather than anything else.”

India’s budget deficit may narrow to 5.5 percent of gross domestic product in the financial year starting April 1 from 6.8 percent of GDP in the previous year, Chakravarthy Rangarajan, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s top economic adviser, said on Feb. 19. Mukherjee is scheduled to unveil the budget in parliament in New Delhi on Feb. 26 at 11 a.m.

Stocks snapped a two-day decline while the yield on India’s benchmark 10-year note fell the most in more than four weeks after Moody’s comment. The rupee gained the most since Feb. 15.

India’s Sensitive Index rose 1.1 percent to 16,369 on the Bombay Stock Exchange and the rupee appreciated 0.3 percent to 46.14 per dollar. Bond yields fell four basis points to 7.84 percent as of 1:24 p.m. in Mumbai.

Indian government debt accounts for about 80 percent of the gross domestic product. Standard & Poor’s and Fitch Ratings have a BBB-, the lowest investment grade rating, on Indian local currency debt.

Positive Outlook

“Although the debt level is high relative to other emerging markets, the fact remains that it’s not increasing sharply,” Mitra said. “It’s hovering around 80 percent of the GDP. So, that’s a reasonably good outcome and which is why we shifted towards the positive outlook,” in December 2009.

Mukherjee, who allowed the budget deficit to widen to provide fiscal stimulus to the economy amid a global recession, is relying on asset sales and faster growth to spur tax collections in next year’s budget.

India’s $1.2 trillion economy may grow 7.2 percent in the current fiscal year through March, accelerating for the first time since 2007, the statistics office said Feb. 8.

Singh’s government plans to reduce stakes in 68 companies including NMDC Ltd., the nation’s largest iron-ore producer, and NTPC Ltd., the biggest electricity provider, after he returned to power in May without the help of communist parties, who as part of the previous coalition had opposed the policy.

Inflation Risk

The government may borrow a net 3.8 trillion rupees in the year starting April 1, compared with 3.97 trillion rupees this year, said Abheek Barua, an economist at the Mumbai-based HDFC Bank Ltd.

Central bank Governor Duvvuri Subbarao last month urged the finance ministry to cut borrowings to support the monetary policy’s goal to contain inflation. Subbarao raised the proportion of deposits lenders need to maintain as cash reserves to 5.75 percent from 5 percent and said monetary policy alone won’t be effective in curbing price-gains unless Mukherjee rolls back fiscal stimulus.

“The growth has rebounded and at the same time there is a risk of inflation,” Mitra said. “Inflation expectations need to be anchored better, either through higher policy rates or if that process could be helped by lower government borrowing and spending.”

India’s inflation accelerated to 8.56 percent in January, the most in 15 months.

“India in on the cusp of a new tryst, which is fiscal destiny, and I hope they will take it,” Mitra said.

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