An unexpected drop in hiring put an end to the excitement that had been bubbling up on Wall Street over the past two weeks.
Stock indexes fell sharply Friday, erasing most of the week’s gains, after the government reported that U.S. employers created the fewest number of jobs in nine months. The 18,000 net jobs in created in June were a fraction of what many economists expected and dampened hopes that the economy was improving. Private companies added jobs at the slowest pace in more than a year. The unemployment rate edged up to 9.2 percent, its highest level this year.
A broader measure of weakness in the labor market was even worse. Among Americans who want to work, 16.2 percent are either unemployed or unable to find full-time jobs. That was up from 15.8 percent in May.
“There’s just a lot more evidence than before that we’re in an extended weak patch,” said Brian Gendreau, market strategist for Cetera Financial Group. He said private economists will likely reduce their projections for overall economic growth this year.
The Standard and Poor’s 500 index fell 9.42 points, or 0.7 percent, to 1,343.80. That eliminated the index’s gains from Thursday and left it with a 0.3 percent gain for the week.
The Dow Jones industrial average lost 62.29, or 0.5 percent, to 12,657.20. The Dow, which had been down by as much as 150 points Friday, had only its second down day over the past nine. The Nasdaq composite dropped 12.85, or 0.4 percent, to 2,859.81. It was its first loss in two weeks.
Companies whose business would be most affected by a weakening economy were hit hardest. Bank of America Corp., General Electric Co. and Boeing Co. were among the biggest decliners in the Dow average.
“The chance of a July bounce back in the economy looks pretty slim now,” said Jay Tyner, president of Semmax Financial Group in Greensboro, North Carolina.
Expectations for Friday’s jobs report were raised Thursday after payroll processor ADP said that private companies added more than 150,000 jobs in June. While the ADP report does not always accurately predict the broader Labor Department report, some investors said that the apparent clashing pictures of the job market were due to a jobs pickup in the last weeks of June.
Phil Orlando, chief market strategist at Federated Investors, said he believes manufacturers began rehiring workers in late June following signs that Japan’s economy was improving. Hiring slumped in May due partly to high fuel prices and disruptions of industrial supplies because of the earthquake and tsunami disasters in Japan guaranteed online payday loans.
Traders rushed to the relative safety of government bonds. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note fell to 3.01 percent from 3.19 percent just before the jobs report came out. Bond yields fall when demand for them increases.
Oil prices fell 2.5 percent. The slowdown in hiring suggested that demand for fuel will increase less than traders had expected. Lower fuel prices could eventually help the economy by leaving consumers with more money to spend on things other than gas.
Weak economic data this spring pushed stocks near their lowest levels of the year two weeks ago. Markets recovered last week, giving the Dow its best week in two years, on signals that the economy was rebounding. Stock indexes closed near their 2011 highs on Thursday.
Despite the weak job market, analysts still expect earnings at big U.S. companies to be strong. Companies are benefiting from export growth as the weak dollar makes American goods cheaper, and therefore more competitive, in overseas markets. Aluminum maker Alcoa Inc., one of the 30 companies in the Dow average, will be the first major corporation to report second-quarter financial results on Monday.
Orlando, the market strategist, said investors will be looking to see how companies have responded to higher commodity costs and a shortage of parts from Japan. “It’s not going to be an earnings season where you can have a blanket proclamation regarding how companies are doing this time around,” he said.
In other company news, Rupert Murdoch’s media conglomerate News Corp. fell nearly 4 percent as a phone-hacking scandal at its News of the World tabloid deepened. A former editor of the paper who later served as spokesman for British Prime Minister David Cameron was arrested Friday. News Corp. shuttered the 168-year old paper on Thursday in hopes of saving its deal to take over the lucrative British satellite TV company British Sky Broadcasting. Government approval of that deal will now be delayed because of the crisis, which has shocked Britain.
The Dow rose 0.6 for the week, the Nasdaq 1.6 percent.
Two stocks fell for every one that rose on the New York Stock Exchange. Volume was lighter than average at 3.1 billion shares.
As the jobless rate inches up and the economic recovery sputters, investors looking for a few good stocks may want to follow the money _ or rather the TV, the beloved Fender guitar, the baubles from grandma, the wedding ring.
Profits at pawn shop operator Ezcorp Inc. have jumped by an average 46 percent annually for five years. The stock has doubled from a year ago, to about $38. And the Wall Street pros who analyze the company think it will go higher yet. All seven of them are telling investors to buy the Austin, Texas, company.
Is the economy still just in a soft patch? A hard patch? Will the market rise or drop? Even experts are just guessing. In investing, it’s often better to focus on what you can safely predict, even if that safety is found in companies that thrive on hard times. One good bet: The jobless aren’t likely to find work anytime soon. And companies profiting from their bad fortune will continue to do so.
Among them:
_ Stock in payday lender Advance America Cash Advance Centers (AEA) has doubled from a year ago, to just under $8. Rival Cash America International Inc. (CSH) is up 64 percent, to $58. Such firms typically provide high interest loans _ due on payday _ to people who can’t borrow from traditional lenders.
_ Profits at Encore Capital Group, a debt collector that targets people with unpaid credit cards bills and other debts, rose nearly 50 percent last year. Encore has faced class action suits in several states, including California, over its collection practices. The Minnesota attorney general filed a suit in March. No matter. The stock (ECPG) is up 59 percent from a year ago, to more than $30.
_ Stock in Rent-A-Center (RCII), which leases televisions, couches, computers and more, is up 57 percent from a year ago to nearly $32. Nine of the 11 analysts covering the company say it will rise further and that investors should buy it.
The idea of investing in companies catering to the hard-up might not be palatable to some people. But it is profitable.
Mark Montagna, an analyst at Avondale Partners in Nashville, has developed what he calls “value retail” index of 11 companies _ dollar stores, off-price shops and clothing and footwear chains favored by shoppers looking for deals. The index is up 149 percent since February 2009, which marked the lowest month-end closing value for the S&P 500 during the recession.
Desperation stocks continue to be lifted by a drumbeat of bad news. Consumer spending, adjusted for inflation, has fallen for two months in a row _ the first back-to-back fall since November 2009. On Friday, the government reported the unemployment rate rose to 9.2 percent in June, sending stocks in tailspin. On top of that, one in seven Americans now live below the poverty line, a 17-year high.
“It’s been a good year,” says John Coffey Jr., a Sterne Agee analyst, referring to the companies he follows, not the economy. Coffey created a stir late last month when he issued a report arguing shares of Ezcorp (EZPW), which also makes payday loans, were worth a third more than their price and urged investors to buy. The stock rose 7 percent in just a few hours.
The next day a widely followed survey showed consumer confidence at a seven month low.
“Here we are celebrating the second year of recovery and confidence is at levels consistent with a recession,” says David Rosenberg, an economist at money manager Gluskin Sheff. “The folks in the survey are probably not the same folks shopping at Tiffany’s.” (That company’s stock is also up nearly 50 percent since March, to about $82.)
But they probably are shopping at Dollar General Corp. Stock in the discount retailer recently hit $34.13, up 50 percent from its IPO in late 2009. And it may be worth about a third more, at least according Avondale’s Montagna.
“People are broke. They’re all chasing value. It’s a seismic shift in mindset,” he says.
Some experts think these down-and-out stocks are just as likely to fall now instead of rise. It’s not that they think the recovery will turn brisk and people will get jobs and shop elsewhere. It’s that things could get worse _ making customers too poor to borrow or buy even from these outfits. Rent-A-Center, the furniture store, is already suffering. Some of its core low-income shoppers have seen money they would have spent leasing a couch or cocktail table eaten up by rising food and fuel bills.
But not to despair. According to Nick Mitchell, an analyst at Northcoast Research, wealthier customers, say those making $45,000, are feeling so strapped lately that they’re starting to rent furniture, too.
Montagna, the Dollar General bull, says he’s seeing people earning $70,000 or more at that chain, too. Even he shops there now.
“If I’m driving past one, I stop in,” he says, adding triumphantly, “I just bought toothpaste _ Crest _ two tubes for $4.”
Britain’s phone hacking scandal reached a new intensity Wednesday as the scope of tabloid intrusion into private voicemails became more clear: Murder victims. Terror victims. Film stars. Sports figures. Politicians. The royal family’s entourage.
Almost no one, it seems, was safe from the reporters and investigators toiling for a tabloid determined to beat its rivals, whatever it takes.
The focal point was the News of the World tabloid, which faced a growing advertising boycott from major firms over the alleged phone hacking, and the top executives of its parent companies: Rebekah Brooks, chief executive of News International, and her boss, media potentate Rupert Murdoch.
Murdoch on Wednesday released a statement indicating that Brooks would continue to lead his British newspaper operation despite calls for her resignation.
The breathtaking scandal, which has already touched the offices of Prime Minister David Cameron and the London Police, widened as News International provided police with evidence that the tabloid had made illegal payments to police officers in its quest for information. Possible victims cited those payments to police as the reasons why an earlier police inquiry did not begin to turn up the extent of the hacking.
The list of potential victims grew as well. New revelations emerged Wednesday that the phones of relatives of people killed in the July 7, 2005 terrorist attacks on London’s transit system, as well those tied to slain schoolgirls, may also have been targeted.
The true extent of the hacking is not yet clear _ and may not be known for months as inquiries unfold.
Graham Foulkes, whose son died in the terrorist attacks, was told by police that he was on a list of potential hacking victims.
“I just felt stunned and horrified,” Foulkes told The Associated Press on Wednesday. “I find it hard to believe someone could be so wicked and so evil, and that someone could work for an organization that even today is trying to defend what they see as normal practices.”
Foulkes, who was to mourn his son Thursday on the sixth anniversary of the attack, said a completely independent investigation was needed because new information showed that the police were compromised by accepting “bribes” from the tabloid.
“The police are now implicated,” he said. “The prime minister must have an independent inquiry and all concerned should be prosecuted.”
Foulkes also demanded the resignation of Brooks, the former News of the World editor who is now chief executive of News International, the U.K. newspaper division of Murdoch’s News Corp. media empire. News Corp. owns a swath of newspapers, including News of the World, the Sun, and the Wall Street Journal.
“She’s gotta go,” Foulkes said. “She cannot say, oops, sorry, we’ve been caught out. Of course she’s responsible for the ethos and practices of her department. Her position is untenable.”
Yet Brooks, one of the most powerful women in British journalism, maintains she did not know about the phone hacking and has declared she will continue to direct the company.
Foulkes also challenged Murdoch _ a global media titan with vast newspaper, television, movie and book publishing interests in the United States, Britain, Australia and elsewhere _ to meet with him to discuss the gross intrusion into his privacy.
“I doubt he’s brave enough to face me,” said Foulkes.
In Parliament, lawmakers held an emergency debate to call for the prosecution of those responsible for hacking into the phone of Milly Dowler, a 13-year-old murder victim, and others.
The Dowler case touched a raw national nerve because the paper is accused of hampering the police investigation by deleting some of Milly’s phone messages, and giving them and her parents false hope that she was still alive after she was abducted in 2002 personal business card.
Cameron called for inquiries into the News of the World’s behavior as well as into the failure of the police’s original phone hacking inquiry, which did not uncover the allegations now emerging.
“We are no longer talking here about politicians and celebrities, we are talking about murder victims, potentially terrorist victims, having their phones hacked into,” Cameron said. “It is absolutely disgusting, what has taken place, and I think everyone in this House and indeed this country will be revolted by what they have heard.”
Ordinary Britons were equally horrified.
“It’s disgusting,” said Danny Wright, 25, of Liverpool. “It’s heartless and inconsiderate that they’d do it to victims and family of murder victims.”
He said it was wrong to hack into celebrities’ phones but far worse to do it to victims’ families “because of what they’ve been through.”
According to opposition Labour Party lawmaker Tom Watson, an April 2002 story in the News of the World made a specific reference to messages that had been left on Milly’s voicemail.
Bob Satchwell, executive director of the Society of Editors, said the Dowler case was crucial.
“That’s why the case has gotten so big,” he said. “If celebrities or politicians have their phones intercepted, that’s one thing. But the idea that they were doing this while a little girl was missing and a police inquiry was going on makes it a really gross intrusion.”
Satchwell said the hacking has become politically sensitive not only because Cameron’s communications chief Andy Coulson was forced to resign earlier this year because of his previous stewardship of the tabloid, but also because lawmakers opposed to Murdoch’s growing media power in Britain want to slow down his takeover of other properties.
He said the hacking of Dowler’s phone was revealed just as government regulators are preparing to decide whether Murdoch can take full control of British Sky Broadcasting.
“You have to ask yourself why that happened right now,” Satchwell said, cautioning that the public has yet to see clear evidence of illegal phone hacking except for two News of the World employees _ reporter Clive Goodman and investigator Glenn Mulcaire _ who have already served time in jail.
When police arrested Mulcaire, they seized 11,000 pages of notes, including the phone numbers of many suspected hacking victims. But police, still investigating, have in most cases not yet made clear who was actually hacked.
News of the World executives have admitted wrongdoing and offered cash settlements to a number of its victims.
The scandal has its roots in the tabloid’s efforts to scoop its competitors with news about the royal family. Representatives of the royals complained to police in late 2005 with suspicions that some of their voicemails had been hacked into.
Tabloid executives claimed at the time the two were rogue employees but that assertion has been undermined by a series of arrests at the newspaper earlier this year and by the company’s willingness to settle with other victims.
The tabloid’s parent company, News International, has insisted it is working closely with police and has a zero-tolerance policy for any wrongdoing or sketchy tactics.
Several companies hastily pulled ads Wednesday from the News of the World amid the public uproar.
Virgin Holidays canceled several ads due to run in the Sunday newspaper this week. Car makers Ford UK and Vauxhall and Halifax bank also said they have suspended advertising.
Mumsnet _ a popular online community for mothers _ removed ads from Murdoch broadcaster Sky after its members complained about the tabloid hacking.
President Barack Obama prodded Congress Tuesday to make a deal within the next two weeks on raising the nation’s borrowing limit, and he said he was summoning leaders of both parties to the White House this week to try to get it done.
Obama said he opposed any effort to “kick the can down the road” with a short-term increase, as suggested by some lawmakers _ though he stopped short of ruling that out. He reiterated his position that any deal must include not only spending cuts but also new revenue _ tax increases already ruled out by Republicans.
“We need to come together over the next two weeks to reach a deal that reduces the deficit and upholds the full faith and credit of the United States government and the credit of the American people,” Obama said at the White House.
“We’ve made progress, and I believe that greater progress is within sight, but I don’t what to fool anybody _ we still have to work through real differences,” the president said.
He said congressional leaders were being invited to meet Thursday at the White House need a personal loan with bad credit.
Obama spoke as the Aug. 2 deadline for raising the nation’s borrowing limit came closer. Experts say lawmakers must waste no time in making a deal if they are to have any chance of getting it finalized and passed through both chambers of Congress in time.
Despite the president’s optimism, it remained unclear where compromise could be found. Republicans are insisting they will note vote to raise the debt limit without major spending cuts; Democrats are refusing to sign off on cuts of such magnitude without at least some tax increases as well. Republicans say they won’t sign off on any tax hikes at all, including those Obama wants targeting the wealthiest Americans or closing loopholes to corporations.
The administration says that if the government’s borrowing limit is not increased by Aug. 2, the U.S. will face its first default ever, potentially throwing financial markets into turmoil.
TMX Group Inc. says London Stock Exchange Group plc has agreed to pay a special cash dividend of $4 per share, sweetening its bid for the Canadian stock market operator by $660 million.
TMX says its shareholders will get the special payment of $4 a share in cash when the proposed merger closes.
The move sweetens the friendly merger
OTTAWA—The Harper government will bring in back-to-work legislation Monday to end the postal strike and get mail moving again.
Declaring that the two sides have had “ample amount of time” to reach a settlement, Labour Minister Lisa Raitt said she would force an end to the Canada Post labour dispute if necessary.
The government was preparing to introduce the legislation Monday afternoon though it could take several days to become law.
The move sparked an angry reaction from New Democrats who accused the Conservatives of meddling in collective bargaining loan for people with bad credit.
It’s possible NDP MPs could delay a legislated end to the dispute.
Interim Liberal Leader Bob Rae accused the Conservatives of doing little to safeguard defined benefit pensions, one of the issues at the heart of the Canada Post dispute.
The first week of June brought a burst of blazing heat to the St. Louis area, with a daily heat index of about 100 degrees, according to the National Weather Service. And for those who earn their livings outside, the scorching conditions have fueled added caution.
“You got to work when you can,” said Mike Prouhet, a cement mason with J.L. Brown that contracts with St. Louis city, “but this kind of got us unexpected, in a hurry.”
It takes four to 14 days to become acclimated to the heat, so the first days of extreme heat are the most dangerous, when people should be careful not to overexert themselves, said Pam Walker, director of the St. Louis City Health Department.
Because only so much work can be done in the shade, area employers are taking extra precautions to protect employees from illness during the heat of summer.
Elizabeth Gotway, the public relations manager at Six Flags St. Louis, said the park circulated a trailer equipped with air conditioning around the park, rotated employees’ tasks between sunny and shady areas and provided sprayers so they could cool off. In addition, the park educates workers about staying hydrated and provides neck fans and water for free.
“You have to be vigilant because a lot of our employees are teens and they’re invincible,” Gotway said with a laugh.
Still, Gotway said, they normally do not have to take such precautions so early in the season.
The Missouri Department of Transportation educates its employees about avoiding stress from the sun, such as wearing light-colored and loose-fitting clothing and avoiding caffeine and alcohol, said Becky Allmeroth, a district engineer for MoDOT’s St. Louis region.
“We watch each other closely,” she said. “Working on roads in traffic is dangerous in and of itself, and it’s made more dangerous if someone shows signs of fatigue.”
MoDOT employees are taught to recognize the symptoms of heat exhaustion and how to take care of co-workers suffering from the heat, giving them breaks in shady areas.
MoDOT sometimes has its employees work an earlier, cooler shift to avoid too much heat exposure, Allmeroth said.
Jeremy Turner, owner and operator of Lawn Doctor, had a simple recommendation for working in the heat: Wear polyester. Turner has learned that lesson since he moved from work in kitchens and bathrooms to the outdoors in the spring of 2010, when he started his company. Lawn Doctor, based in Creve Coeur, specializes in fertilization and weed control. The company’s three employees maintain several hundred lawns in the area, he said low interest rate personal loans.
Lee Bailes, the CEO of Guier Fence, said that in addition to starting earlier, working later and allowing more breaks in the afternoons, he has hired additional employees to ease the workload.
Guier Fence, which is based in the Kansas City area and has been in business for more than 30 years, has franchises throughout the state. The St. Louis office, operated by Derek and Kelley Burt, contracts with two or three regular installers and takes on additional workers as necessary.
Yet sticking to what’s recommended is not so easy, he says.
“Most (of my employees) handle it well,” Bailes said. “They enjoy working outside and with their hands, and know that the heat just comes with it.”
Bailes says he heard complaints, especially during the first few days of the heat wave when workers hadn’t yet figured out how to deal with high temperatures.
Bob Frederic, president of St. Louis-based Frederic Roofing, said his company had been starting jobs earlier in the day, getting under way as early as 6 a.m. He issues the same warnings about clothing and watching coworkers but said they couldn’t work eight hours a day. Frederic, whose company employs 60 people, said they stopped working about noon on hot days.
“It’s a tough time of year for the roofing industry,” said Frederic, who has been roofing for 30 years. “It’s not that we don’t have the work, it’s a matter of getting it done.”
Adding to Frederic’s frustration is the fact that spring was so wet. Now, with the heat, it has hard to make up days lost to spring rains. His company has scheduled work for Saturdays, but Frederic said that he hesitated to do so too often because “even with shorter hours, (in this heat) you need a two-day weekend to recoup.”
Frederic said that he hoped the temperatures wouldn’t remain so high for the rest of the summer but that “the good news is that after it has been 98 and 100 degrees, 90 will feel a lot better, like winter.”
Julie Phillipson, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service in St. Louis, added to the optimism.
“An extremely warm start to June doesn’t necessarily mean the summer will be extremely hot,” she said.
The temperature projections for the summer months have a 33 to 40 percent chance of being below normal, though this may mean periods of extreme heat are followed by cold periods, Phillipson said.
UNIVERSITY CITY
The departure of Yemen’s battle-wounded president for treatment in Saudi Arabia set off wild street celebrations Sunday in the capital, where crowds danced, sang and slaughtered cows in hopes that this spelled a victorious end to a more than three-month campaign to push their leader from power.
Behind the festive atmosphere, many feared Ali Abdullah Saleh, a masterful political survivor who has held power for nearly 33 years, will yet return _ or leave the country in ruins if he can’t. Hanging in the balance was a country that even before the latest tumult was beset by deep poverty, malnutrition, tribal conflict and violence by an active al-Qaida franchise with international reach.
Saleh, who was taken overnight to a military hospital in the Saudi capital, Riyadh, underwent successful surgery on his chest to remove jagged pieces of wood that splintered from a mosque pulpit when his compound was hit by rockets on Friday, said medical officials and a Yemeni diplomat. They spoke on condition of anonymity because they did not have permission to release the information.
The stunning rocket attack, which the government first blamed on tribal fighters who in recent weeks turned against the president and later on al-Qaida, killed 11 bodyguards and seriously injured five senior officials worshipping just alongside Saleh.
While Saleh is away, Vice President Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi is acting as temporary head of state, said the deputy information minister, Abdu al-Janadi. The minister said the president would return to assume his duties after his treatment, though experts on Yemeni affairs questioned whether a return is possible in the face of so much opposition.
“Saleh will come back. Saleh is in good health, and he may give up the authority one day but it has to be in a constitutional way,” al-Janadi said. “Calm has returned. Coups have failed. … We are not in Libya, and Saleh is not calling for civil war.”
His sudden departure raised many questions, including whether his Saudi hosts would bless his return. The Saudis have backed Saleh and cooperated over the years in confronting al-Qaida and other threats, but they are now among those pressing him to give up power as part of a negotiated deal. Saudi Arabia has watched with concern the anti-government protests that have spread to other neighboring countries like Bahrain and is eager to contain the unrest on its doorstep.
The president’s absence raised the specter of an even more violent power struggle between the armed tribesmen who have joined the opposition and loyalist military forces under the command of Saleh’s son and other close relatives. Street battles between the sides have already pushed the political crisis to the brink of civil war.
In an attempt to cool the situation, the vice president offered through mediators to pull government forces back from the neighborhood of the capital where they’ve battled fighters loyal to Sheik Sadeq al-Ahmar, who heads Yemen’s most powerful tribal confederation, the Hashid.
Al-Ahmar said in a statement he agreed to the deal, which requires his forces to leave the streets and government ministries they seized starting Monday.
In the streets of the capital, Sanaa, joyful crowds celebrated what they hoped would be Saleh’s permanent exit.
Crowds danced, sang and slaughtered a few cows in what demonstrators have dubbed Change Square, the epicenter of the nationwide protest movement since mid-February calling for Saleh to step down immediately. Some uniformed soldiers joined those dancing and singing patriotic songs and were hoisted on the shoulders of the crowd. Many in the jubilant crowd waved Yemeni flags, joyfully whistling and flashing the “V” for victory signs.
“Who would have believed that this people could have removed the tyrant?” said 30-year-old teacher Moufid al-Mutairi.
Women in black veils joined demonstrators carrying banners that hailed Saleh’s departure low interest personal loan. One read: “The oppressor is gone, but the people stay.”
But there were also fears that the president would attempt a comeback or try to transfer power to his son Ahmed, who heads the Republican Guard and remains in Yemen. Some worried Saleh and his allies could even try to leave the country in ruins if they feel there is no way to stay in power.
“Saleh is never true to his word,” said al-Mutairi, the teacher. “If the medical reports are true that his wounds are light, then he will for sure return. Our challenge now is to remove the rest of the regime.”
“If he returns, it will be a disaster.”
Yemen’s unrest began as a peaceful protest movement that the government at times used brutal force to try to suppress, killing at least 166 people, according to Human Rights Watch. It transformed in the past two weeks into armed conflict after the president’s forces attacked the home of a key tribal leader and one-time ally who threw his support behind the uprising. The fighting turned the streets of the capital into a war zone.
Other forces aligned against Saleh at the same time. There were high-level defections within his military, and Islamist fighters took over at least one town in the south in the past two weeks.
In Taiz, Yemen’s second-largest city, dozens of gunmen attacked the presidential palace on Sunday, killing four soldiers in an attempt to storm the compound, according to military officials and witnesses. They said one of the attackers was also killed in the violence. The attackers belong to a group set up recently to avenge the killing of anti-regime protesters at the hands of Saleh’s security forces.
Elsewhere in the south, gunman ambushed a military convoy, killing nine soldiers, officials said. They spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to talk to the media.
Saleh has been under intense pressure to step down from his powerful Gulf neighbors, who control a large share of the world’s oil resources, and from longtime ally Washington. They all fear Yemen could be headed toward a failed state that will become a fertile ground for al-Qaida’s most active franchise to operate and launch attacks abroad.
In a display of the kind of political maneuvering that has helped keep Saleh in power through numerous perils, he agreed three times to a U.S.-backed Gulf Arab proposal for ending the crisis only to back out at the last minute.
Now, Saleh’s injuries and his treatment abroad provide him with what could turn out to be a face-saving solution to exit power.
“This is exactly what needed to happen,” said Christopher Boucek, a Yemen expert with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “He needed to leave in order to get past this political deadlock that has been cursing Yemen for the past few months.”
Rick Nelson, a counterterrorism expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, said there is no chance of Saleh returning to Yemen and it’s unlikely anyone linked to him can maintain power and control.
“I can’t see any remnant of the saleh government staying in place after this,” Nelson said.
The fact that powerful members of Saleh’s family have remained behind in Sanaa suggests vigorous attempts to hold power will be made.
Significantly, military officials said Hadi, the vice president, met late Saturday night in Sanaa with several members of Saleh’s family, including his son and one-time heir apparent Ahmed, who commands the powerful Republican Guard. Others who attended the meeting included two of the president’s nephews and two half brothers. All four head well-equipped and highly trained units that constitute the president’s main power base in the military.
Russia’s central bank unexpectedly raised its overnight deposit rate, signaling it may refrain from tightening monetary policy again as price pressures ebb and the economic recovery remains shaky.
Bank Rossii raised the fixed overnight deposit rate to 3.5 percent from 3.25 percent, effective May 31, the fourth increase since December, the Moscow-based central bank said today in an e-mailed statement. Nine of 20 economists in a Bloomberg survey predicted the move. The refinancing rate and overnight auction- based repurchase rates were left at 8.25 percent and 5.50 percent, in line with economists’ expectations.
Chairman Sergey Ignatiev is trying to keep inflation between 6 percent and 7 percent without stifling credit flows and undermining an economic recovery in the world’s biggest energy supplier. The inflation rate is now “in order” and the bank will be “very cautious” in raising borrowing costs to “avoid hurting economic growth,” Ignatiev said May 26.
Today’s increase and earlier measures “provide an acceptable balance between the risks of continued inflationary pressure and slowing economic growth for the nearest months,” the central bank said.
Ruble Weakens
Policy makers left mandatory reserve ratios unchanged for a second month after lifting them in January, February and March. Economists expect Bank Rossii to resume increases in the second half of the year, according to the median of 12 forecasts in a Bloomberg survey.
The ruble erased gains after advancing on the decision and was 0.1 percent lower against the dollar at 28.0850 at 5:40 p.m. in Moscow. Russia’s ruble bonds due March 2014 slid for the first time in three days, pushing the yield 3 basis points higher to 6.59 percent.
The Micex Index of 30 stocks added to gains after the announcement and was up 0.3 percent at 1,642.13 at 4:42 p.m.
“It’s a signal for the market that the central bank continues to be watching inflation, and that it potentially intends to tighten policy if economic growth firms and consumers proceed with their current behavior of lower savings and higher borrowing,” Dmitry Polevoy, chief economist for Russia and Kazakhstan at ING Groep in Moscow, said by telephone.
Slowest Growing
The slowest-growing economy among the so-called BRIC nations, Russia is relying on revenue from oil to bolster its recovery, while seeking ways to reduce its reliance on energy exports. Oil at more than $100 a barrel is no longer stoking economic expansion, which slowed to 4.1 percent in the first quarter from 4.5 percent in the fourth. Growth slid further in April, to 3 on line pay day loans.3 percent, the Economy Ministry said May 26.
The economy will expand 4.5 percent next year, compared with 9.1 percent for China and 7.8 percent for India, the International Monetary Fund forecast in April.
The pace of inflation has shown signs of steadying. Consumer-price growth in May will probably match the rate from the same month last year, when prices gained a monthly 0.5 percent, Ignatiev said May 26. The annual rate in April matched an 18-month high of 9.6 percent and reached 9.7 percent as of May 23, the central bank said today.
Consumer price growth “remains relatively low” in monthly terms, policy makers said in the statement. Food-price growth has slowed as the knock-on effects from last year’s drought, the country’s worst in 50 years, eased, the bank added.
Grain Ban Lifted
A ban on grain exports introduced as a result of the drought will be allowed to expire July 1, representing the “only serious, significant risk factor” for inflation, Ignatiev said today, the RIA Novosti news service reported.
Russian grain prices are now about half global levels, First Deputy Prime Minister Viktor Zubkov said in a meeting with Prime Minister Vladimir Putin May 28.
Unlike their counterparts in Brazil, China and India, Russian policy makers preferred currency gains and higher reserve requirements for lenders as inflation-fighting tools to help fledgling growth. The ruble has gained 9 percent so far this year after the bank relaxed currency controls.
Elections
With parliamentary elections at the end of the year and presidential elections in early 2012, policy makers will probably step up their inflation-fighting rhetoric and revive efforts to meet this year’s price goal, according to Timothy Ash, head of emerging-market research at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc in London.
Previously the central bank “put a greater weight on growth, but with signs the population is becoming increasingly sensitive to the impact of inflation on real disposable incomes, and with opinion polls showing a dip in support for the ruling elites, controlling inflation is also center stage,” Ash wrote in a note e-mailed on May 26.
The central bank cited high unemployment, slowing industrial production growth, and an “extremely low” level of investment as key risks to growth. Consumers are borrowing and spending more while saving less, which could boost economic growth and inflation, it said.
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